The Sporting Clinic

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Lewis Trades Toto for the Tifosi – Analysing the Significance of the Stunning Switch

“Everybody’s a Ferrari fan.” The immortal words of Sebastian Vettel back in 2016 epitomise what Ferrari means to the world of motorsport. When you are young, you draw race cars in red and support the ‘prancing horse.’ There’s an emotional connection between Formula One and Ferrari, perhaps inexplicable or irrational. The Italian team best encapsulates the passion, desire, and romanticism of F1, drawing in fans across the world, and just last week, Lewis Hamilton himself.

It's impossible to understate the significance of this driver transfer. It’s the biggest signing since Hamilton’s 2013 move to Mercedes, but it’s likely larger than that. It mirrors the magnitude of moves like Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid, LeBron James to the Miami Heat, or Babe Ruth to the Yankees. In this case, it came out of nowhere. Lewis is undisputedly a top two driver of all time; he is arguably more famous than F1 itself, and this move changes the landscape of the sport in many ways. Who replaces him? Will he win his eighth world championship? What happens to the rest of the grid?

Let’s start with his motivation. Enzo Ferrari once stated that “Ferrari is a dream—people dream of owning this special vehicle, and for most, it will remain a dream, apart from for those lucky few." To drive for Ferrari is every F1 fan's dream, including the drivers themselves. Lewis was left with the decision to play it safe and stay at Mercedes. Or listen to that little boy’s voice in his head telling him to ‘fulfil his dream.’

While the old Lewis was solely devoted to winning, he has shown ambitions beyond silverware. These include his interest in fashion, featuring on a Christina Aguilera song, or his work on the Hamilton Commission to improve the representation of black people in motorsport. Hamilton wants a legacy beyond his championships and records. A move to Ferrari allows him to continue his journey and further his endeavours in a new setting.

There’s a reason Charles Leclerc puts up with Ferrari failures, or Carlos Sainz left a fast McLaren for a seemingly slower Ferrari a few years ago. When Ferrari calls, you answer. And when Lewis is available, you get him. Hamilton is also being paid $100 million. That probably helped, but it has been rumoured that Ferrari offered him a longer ambassador role than Mercedes, also sweetening the deal.

If any of that makes you believe Lewis isn’t bothered about winning, think again. No one has worked as hard as him to make it to F1, and his desire to win that eighth title is as strong as ever. But is Ferrari the right place to go? Without a championship since 2007/2008, this is a huge gamble. Mercedes is a winning machine. Or, should I say, were a winning machine.

Lewis made a bigger gamble to join the German giants over ten years ago, and I think that worked out for him. The “feeling” is all he needs to make this move. Ferrari have shown improvement since their disaster in 2020, and they have been the closest contender to Red Bull for the last few seasons. The British driver will be hoping they can continue their upward trajectory in 2025 and into the new regulations in 2026. Team Principal Fred Vasseur has worked with Lewis in GP2 and appears to be a big reason why Lewis took this chance. Fred will not want the embarrassment of messing this all up for a driver of Lewis’ calibre; the team should be inspired by his standards.

Mercedes have shown glimpses of pace, but their philosophy just hasn’t worked out. The fact that Lewis made the decision now to leave suggests he is not confident in this year or their future. All will be revealed after testing and the first few races, but Mercedes’ fans are understandably nervous.

A big move like this will have every driver sniffing around for a better seat, and that slot in Mercedes will be popular. Options for Toto Wolff are plentiful. He could put his faith in the experienced Fernando Alonso and tempt him away from the Aston Martin project. Despite George Russell and Fernando’s warm friendship, two ‘number one’ drivers often lead to tension. Father Time seems to be losing to the Spaniard, but Mercedes are likely to look to someone younger. For that same reason, it looks unlikely that Sebestian Vettel will make a dramatic return, despite his immense popularity.

My money would be on Alex Albon. If they could break all his contractual ties to Red Bull, Alex would be a wonderful fit in Brackley. He’s very mature, well-spoken, and a great team player. He and George have gotten along well throughout the junior ranks, so perhaps Toto will count on that to prevent the frostiness that has plagued Mercedes’ driver pairings. Alex may not be as quick as George, but the Thai driver is excellent at developing cars with engineers and will keep George very honest in both qualifying and race conditions.

A wildcard I will throw out there is Andrea Kimi Antonelli. It is rather depressing to note this kid is 17 and about to debut in the feeder series Formula 2. You will not hear a bad word said about Kimi; the whole paddock is either super excited or quite worried about him becoming the next big thing. He is a Mercedes junior driver, meaning an incredible rookie campaign could have the hierarchy scrambling to find the Italian a seat. Maybe they will reduce the pressure by putting him in Williams, but stranger things have happened than a premature promotion.

Carlos Sainz can count himself unlucky to be out of a seat next year, but he may be saved with the number of contracts up at the end of 2024. His dad’s strong links to Audi have him in line with a switch to Sauber, but any midfield team or even Mercedes would be lucky to have him. Ricciardo to Red Bull, Perez to Williams, and Tsunoda to Aston Martin are all plausible moves that could be announced in the coming year.

Hamilton has shaken up the world of F1 for years to come with this announcement. For Lewis, it is already a success to drive for the ‘Prancing Horse,’ but only time will tell if that elusive eighth title awaits him at Marinello.