The Lance Stroll cycle. Pre-season hope. A solid start. An unlucky streak. A dip in performance. Some stunning late-season drives. He always leaves us with more questions than answers. With back-to-back fifth-place finishes, including an outrageous comeback from P19 in Vegas, it feels like the cycle is complete for another year. So, can Lance Stroll prove the critics wrong and be a Formula One mainstay? Or is this finally going to be the end of his F1 career?

The 25-year-old is the most unique driver on the grid. The Executive Chairman of Aston Martin and founder of the Aston Martin F1 team is his father, Lawrence Stroll. Lawrence has not only funded Lance’s F1 career but secured him a ‘permanent’ seat when he bought Racing Point in 2018. He then purchased the Aston Martin car company and renamed the old team. This has kept Lance in F1 for the last five years. Nicknames like ‘Daddy’s Cash’ have followed him since. Lawrence has chosen to remove two arguably more talented drivers, Esteban Ocon and Sergio Perez, in favour of his son. Teams with Lance as their driver receive major financial benefits. ‘Cash is king,’ as Lewis Hamilton famously once said, and this does feel like nepotism.

While I can’t overestimate how much money makes the F1 world go round, you miss the point if that’s all you talk about with Lance. ‘Pay driver’ is a term thrown at people who use their financial status to get racing seats. You need money in F1 to pay for the eye-wateringly expensive junior categories. Former driver Ralf Schumacher estimated it would cost more than 13 million dollars! Only Esteban Ocon and Lewis Hamilton have come from relatively working-class backgrounds, and I wouldn’t describe 90% of the grid as ‘pay drivers.’ It’s a rich person’s game; people like Lance are the product of an unfair system.

Lance proved his worth during his impressive junior career with a F3 Championship win in 2016. 14 wins against George Russell, Calum Ilott, and Guanyu Zhou is no fluke. An incredible podium in his debut F1 season driving for Williams was proving the doubters wrong, especially in the notorious Baku streets. He remains the second-youngest podium sitter at 18 years old.

Lance ‘can’t’ lose his seat, which some argue impacts his results. Pressure makes diamonds in F1. You sink or you swim. After just ten races, Nick De Vries was sacked . Furthermore, Lance has survived four or five periods that could have lost him his seat. Teammate Fernando Alonso beat him comprehensively by 127 points. He couldn’t quite keep up with Sergio Perez and just about matched Sebastian Vettel. It’s not quite good enough. Something seemed to snap in Qatar for Lance. He had an angry media outburst and shoved his trainer. The writing was on the wall. But once again, he found some form to quieten the media noise. 

Lawrence is a smart businessperson. The move into F1 was perfectly timed with its growth, and if Lance is a problem for his vision, he’ll know the right decision to make. Even though that could mean a P45 for his own son. He hasn't pulled the plug because Lance isn't a big problem, at least in the short term. Alonso is a top-five driver on the grid, with supreme confidence that borders arrogance. He likes to be a ‘number one’ driver, prioritising his teammate, unlike his failed partnerships with Ocon or Hamilton that turned sour. Aston Martin will be desperate for an improvement from Lance, but he just about gets enough points for now with age on his side.

Lance has a year left on his deal, and whether he gets another one will inevitably depend on the movement of drivers in higher-up teams. 2024 contract renewal could bring a big-name driver like Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz, and Yuki Tsunoda. Aston Martin and Honda are entering a partnership for engines soon, so Yuki would be a great fit. If they believe they are producing a race-winning car that soon, they’ll want a high-profile signing.

Lance is good enough for F1. If he lost his seat, he wouldn’t be a bad option for the likes of Williams, Alfa Romeo, or Haas. The grass isn’t always greener. Sticking with Lance might be the lesser of two evils. He is in control of his future; he only needs one or two tweaks to find that crucial consistency.

Lance needs to have a conversation with himself and probably his dad. Does he believe he can step up? Or does he want to take his talent to a series where he can not only thrive but potentially enjoy far more than the crushing pressure of F1? Aston Martin’s new Valkyrie project for the World Endurance Championship is coming soon, and I believe Lance Stroll is the best driver for the job. 

Image: By Nabtifal, IMG_0089, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=123034541